Nigeria: At the mercy of of divisive politics

Nigeria: At the mercy of of divisive politics

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Written by Olawale RasheedSunday, 06 May 2012

IBB and OBJ

Regional Editor, Olawale Rasheed, examines the breakdown in national leadership consensus and the consequent fallouts, concluding that the way out is for the  leaders to re-unite or face mass citizen revolt.

National challenges with multi-dimensional complications are driving the nation to the precipice. Increasing breakdown of consensus among the elite is driving brinkmanship politics out of control, leading to emboldening of centrifugal forces tearing at the heart of the nation.

In the last one month, the failure of ruling clique within the federation to agree on power management is threatening the foundation of the nation, forcing even the best of patriots to question the status quo within the polity. The spreading sense of despair is being compounded on daily basis, with each day appearing even more disturbing than the previous.

While the nation has witnessed so many life-threatening conflcts, never has it been so bombarded and troubled with so many disputations and divisive confrontations as we are witnessing now. From the 1962 Western region crisis to the two military coups of the First Republic, the issue then appeared straightfarward. From the civil war to the military hand over in 1979, the national elite appeared successful in managing the fall outs of crises. From the Second Republic to the June 12, 1993 crisis, the worst of that period cannot compare with the depth of mistrust, division and separatist feelings now pervading the nation.

At every point of previous conflicts, the elite found a meeting and melting point even when all hope seemed lost. The death in detention of the late MKO Abiola and the follow up death of the late General Sani Abacha were rationalised by the elite with an arrangement quickly made for a succession and a transition that produced the second coming of former President Olusegun Obasanjo. Ever since Obasanjo’s exit from power, the nation has never been the same again, partly due to struggle for Presidency and the re-emergence of regional angling for autonomy.

The issue facing the current leadership seems too overwhelming and intractable. Unfortunately, the power clique appears unwilling or unprepared for survival reason to back the incumbent in finding solutions. While in the past, a collective and united front is brought to bear on resolving nation-threatening developments, the present scenario is witnessing a sad reversal. The potent elders and power brokers have withdrawn to their shell, increasing the drum of “to your tent, oh Israel“

Goodluck Jonathan

In the last two weeks alone, the discovery of multi-trillion naira scams in various sectors was alarming. The involvement of highly-placed figures, coupled with the apparent slow deployment of punitive measures, has strengthened administration’s opponents. The trillion naira scams surprised the citizenry, especially as poverty is harshly enveloping more than two-third of the population. The speed of unearthening of such scams, all within the last two or so years, took many aback.

More worrisome is what many perceived as the apparent powerlessness in taming the corruption monster that is on daily basis strengthening its hold on the system. The consequence is a deepening explosion of citizens‘ anger and disgust, while they appear largely unprepared to consider the conspiracy theory of Northern propaganda against a Southern Presidency. The public distrust of government at all levels is today seen by many as a fact, rather than fiction.

As kleptomaniacs and their deals are unraveling, the nation is also seen as gripped in a guerilla warfare which has become open ended. Reports within and outside government indicate that the Boko Haram offensive has been hijacked by political forces now deploying insurgency as a tool of power struggle. The alleged existence of political Boko Haram has now taken a new dimension. If that variant of the sect exist at all, it has been reasoned, there may then be Southern and Northern wings of such political Boko Haram. The sect has now publicly denounced attribution of some attacks to it, claiming not to be behind many of such attacks.

Interstingly, while some Southern leaders have accused the North of sponsoring political Boko Haram, some Northern intellectual are now leveling the same allegation, alleging that the South is behind the insurgency as a way of destroying the North.

The fiery speech of the National Security Adviser (NSA), Andrew Owoye Azazi while fuelling the exchange, also opened some new fronts. As many considered the statement wrong and punishable, some Northern elites are now turning the rhetoric of the security chief around to mean a subtle campaign for the president in 2015. The NSA had attributed the insurgency to Northern anger over the Jonathan Presidency.

But Dr Aliyu Tilde, on his blog, in turn, subtly accused the administration of having created the sect to destroy the North and pave the way for the president to return in 2015.

Danger of religious warIn the midst of the bloodshed, a religious war is looming. With continuous deaths among both Christians and Muslims, leading Christian body, Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) is issuing warning of retaliation, if the trend does not stop. In a religiously heterogenious nation, such a prospect is a recipe for internecine genocide. For the insurgents, the killing will continue while retaliation threat subsist in an increasingly violatile North. A religious war in the North, and Middle-Belt in particular, some have noted, would automatically spread to the Southern part of the country.

More terrifying was that the patron of Northern Christians, General Theophilus Danjuma, recently warned of the ‘somalisation’ of Nigeria. Even when he expressed optimism that the nation would sail throuh the storm, he was mute on what might follow if the sect continued the killing spree. General Danjuma is known as one of the core elite ruling the nation. Another of such elite, former President Obasanjo, admitted the seriousness of the situation in a recent lecture in London, but refused to comment on the efficacy or otherwise of current counter terrorism efforts.

Generals and cold warMore deafening is the apparent silence or powerlessness of other power brokers. General Ibrahim Babangida is now quiet. General Aliyu Guasua the renowned master spy, is not available or not utilised. General Abdusalami Abuabakar is enmeshed in Northern political groupings. The nation is not aware of how far they and other Northern elders who met not too long ago on the state of the nation have gone. In the South, many top leaders are drumming and even dancing to separatist drums.

If the crisis is biting hard, the regional groups are also fighting among each other. The Yoruba are now split between continuous collaboration with the South-South-led administration and moves for an alliance with the North. While some believe any alliance with the North is suicidal, others believe that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)-led government should be voted out through collaboration with the Arewa. Senator Bola Tinubu may have received a timely warning that aligning with the North might provide them a lifeline from the only chance Southerners might have to finally liberate themselves from the age-long Northern hegemony.

As the Boko Haram insurgency spread, the situation in the Niger Delta is not as peaceful as many expect. The militants are still on the prowl. Intermittent attacks on pipelines continues; oil bunkering, almost on industrial scale, is ongoing; illegal refineries are regularly springing up in the creeks and waterways. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) is becoming very active again. The dream of oil-rich Niger Delta Republic appears bubbling in the heads of some activists.

For the South-East region, the Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) has become more entrenched and structured. Radio Biafra has commenced broadcast from London and MASSOB leaders are forging ahead with logo, currency, flag and other details for the realisation of their dream. More dangerous is the new feelings among Igbo activists that if Presidency is not ceded to them in 2015 as it was done for the Yoruba in 1999, then, separatist campaign will be intensified.

For the Arewa, the battle within the house is even more intense than many expect. If Nigeria as a whole is convulsing, the North is practically on the pang of death. The insurgency has paralysed key commercial centers of the region with development organisations fleeing, investors relocating and civilians caught in urban warfare. The region is, thus, retarding developmentally, leading to blame game among young and old leaders of the region. As many Northerners confessed, the North is cornered, cowed and in disarray.

Now a divided North?A group of Northern academics, businessmen and politicians had organised themselves with a view to finding a political direction for the North. Led by Dr Junaid Mohammed,the group expressed surprise that few days after their public outing, the elders convened their own meeting to reportedly provide leadership for the region. This led to an unpredented attacks by Dr. Mohammed on the old guards.

“This emerging group (Ibrahim Babangida and the likes of Abdulasalami Abubakar) are peddling (themselves) as elders of the North. Don’t put us in the same category. It was the same set of failed elders that brought General Obasanjo as a big disaster to the people of the North and Nigeria. They are only jittery of the wind of change that we are now championing, feeling they are super powers of the past and present, and no one, in their thinking, is up to the task, except them. So, what they want is if their interests cannot be protected, they will poison the water and everyone will lose.

“If you check newspapers, they have also come out to say that they are supporting national conference. What do they know about the problems of the masses of the North? If you check their histories and the positions they held, they are today in their 70s and 80s and most of them held offices in their 30s, [yet] today, in their 80s, they are still circulating and claiming to be knowledgeable because of their selfish interests. What we are doing is, because of their mess and failures, we are tired of the mess we are in today and it is people-orientated initiative born out of the desire for change.

“It shows they will only want people to be their slaves and cronies, and if they sensed you are not such cronies, they will oppose you and kill your initiatives. They just feel it cannot be but only them. We are not with them, we started this since January and February, and now they are meeting in Abuja and Minna that they want change. Ater all, we know where the money is coming from.

If there is anything bad about our backgrounds and attitude, let them come out and say it. We know their secrets and we will say it.

We were the ones that started in Niger Lodge and people saw the people we gathered. Anybody that came was known and for them to come out and blackmail us we will not tolerate them, “the politician said.

Will North calm with Igbo Presidency in 2015?
In the midst of all these, the many good achievements of the Jonathan-led Presidency in aviation, health, agriculture and others are overshadowed by security challenge and increasing discovery of scams in government operations. Where the administration demonstrates good faith, critics are ever suspicious. The situation may not have been helped by the pervading posture of “it is our turn; others can go to blaze.“

Many analysts believe the solution may not lie simply with the present administration. What is shattered must be rebuilt before the nation can make any headway. The battle within the elite caucus is at the core of the confrontation. The struggle over who take the Presidency in 2015 is the crux of the matter as pointed out by General Azazi. If the president renounces presidential ambition in 2015, will the crisis stop? Many in the North believe so.

But if the president dropped his ambition and then backs a Pius Anyim or Ike Ekweremadu, will the battle be resolved?  Many keen watchers believe not. Thus, the issue is that the North wants the Presidency back at all cost. This line of reasoning many in the South find disgusting, leading to the feeling of separation from the entity called Nigeria. The North, many in the South feel, cannot continue to hold the nation hostage.

But for the Arewa, their clamour is a cry for justice. The president, they argued, usurped their mandate in 2011 and, hence, 2015 should be for them, if there is going to be peace in the country. But the North is divided; its leaders cannot present united front.

Thus, a smart Southern candidate can, with the support of the Middle-Belt, snatch the Presidency again in 2015.

Beyond the preceding, many strategic thinkers who do not want the nation fall apart propose the rebuilding of elite consensus. The belief is that unless the power brokers come together, the battle will worsen and ordinary Nigerians will suffer the more. Rebuilding here means conceding and compromising in a way to mutually protect common interest.

Others more militant, however, thank God for the breakdown of elite consensus as they believe that it was the consensus that had allowed the few to milk the nation dry. From this breakdown and attendant convulsions, they believe, a glorious dawn will emerge.

 Trendinaija Source